Will demographic shifts transform water demand?
26th June 2026
Most forecasts assume that the future of water demand will rise simply because the population is growing. But new research suggests that there are other factors that impact consumption: age.
It seems odd that a country as famed for regular rainfall and less than glorious weather could experience water shortages. Yet despite the preconception that the UK experiences year-round rain and grey skies, concerns over water shortages have never been greater.
In part, this is thanks to an expanding population and intensive industrial processes. Add to that the effects of the worsening climate crisis, and it is small wonder that the more populous areas of Britain are already seeing frequent water shortages. According to the Environment Agency, by 2050, the UK will require an additional 5 billion litres of water a day.
However, a study published by Water Resources Research suggests that demographic shifts – specifically age structure – have been overlooked in past projections of future water demand.
So how will new forecasts around changing age profiles affect water demand, and what will it mean for the future of UK businesses?
Age matters when it comes to water consumption
Interestingly, water demand in the UK going forward will not just be affected by population size but also on the age of the people in the country. In the study published in Water Resources Research, it is suggested that an ageing population statistically generates a lower demand for water, with a 1% increase in members of the population aged 65 and over corresponding to a 2.17% decrease in water use.
This is because older adults tend to engage in fewer water-intensive activities than younger people. They travel less, use less water for work and leisure, and have different consumption patterns for goods and services.
While the study does not claim that an ageing population directly reduces water demand, it does illustrate that changes to age profiles has the potential to reshape consumption patterns.
Will demographic change solve water scarcity?
According to the research models used in the study, global forecasts for ageing and shrinking populations could reduce global water withdrawals from lakes, rivers and aquifers by up to 31% by 2050, with some countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China seeing water demand reductions of 42 – 62%. Importantly, though, this does not mean water scarcity will no longer be an issue because the changing climate, increasing use of water in industrial processes and demands of other activities such as water in running data centres, all have a role to play.
Even if individual households in some countries consume less water as the population ages, businesses shouldn’t assume this will ease pressure on water supplies. Demand from industry, agriculture and energy production will continue to rise, while climate change will make supplies less predictable.
The most notable of these is agriculture, which accounts for 70% of global freshwater consumption, but also beverage production, the hospitality industry, electricity, gas and textiles. To eliminate water scarcity, these industries will need to use water far more efficiently by adopting practices such as water recycling and rainwater harvesting, and by finding ways to reduce their water consumption overall.
Under the Environment Act 2021, the UK aims to reduce public water supply use per head by 20% by 2038 from a 2020 baseline. However, recent reporting show only a 3.6% –5.1% reduction so far. If this pace does not quicken, the UK will not meet its long-term goals.
The climate crisis will also impact global water supplies through droughts and flooding. How large this impact will be is uncertain, as less predictable rainfall patterns and unstable ocean currents make projections about water supply and demand inexact.
Businesses that rely heavily on water will undoubtedly need to adapt to changing customer behaviours and look to manage water-intensive processes more carefully. It is in this area that the team at Everflow are able to assist.
Through our EcoMOT service we are able to help businesses audit their water usage, identify leaks and other areas of water waste, and help companies to implement water saving measures. Not only that but carrying out a business water price comparison with us can help organisations to save directly on their water contracts.
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